Pessimistic or Optimistic? Yankees’ 2024 Playoff Projections: What the Analysts Say

Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

The Yankees’ playoff prospects in 2024 are not looking bright, according to projections from Baseball Reference. They predict the Yankees to have a mere 2.7 percent chance of making it to the postseason and winning only 71.6 games, which is below the Pirates and Angels without Ohtani. In contrast, Fangraphs predict the Yankees will win 88 games, fourth most in all of baseball. However, BetRivers Sportsbook is more optimistic about the Yankees’ chances of success and projects them to win 91.5 games with +650 odds for having the best record in baseball.

While Baseball Reference’s predictions rely on their Simple Rating System that calculates run differential and strength of schedule from previous year’s prior 100 games, this equation does not account for injuries or players but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty.

Despite this pessimistic outlook, the Yankees made significant offseason acquisitions including Juan Soto that should greatly improve their offense. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, the Yankees have a chance to turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.

The stat analysts over at Baseball Reference are not optimistic about the Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024. They project the Yankees to have only a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games.

These projections are in stark contrast to Fangraphs who predict the Yankees to win 88 games, which is fourth-most in all of baseball.

BetRivers Sportsbook is even more bullish on the Yankees than Fangraphs do, projecting them to win 91.5 games with third-best odds for having most wins in baseball at +650.

BetRivers gives them a 77.01 percent chance of making it into playoffs compared to Baseball Reference’s projection of just a tiny percentage (2.7%). However, there are factors that these projections do not take into account like injuries or players that can change everything.

Despite this pessimistic outlook, there are reasons for hope as well. The Yankees made significant offseason acquisitions including Juan Soto that should greatly improve their offense.

Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, they have a chance to turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.

Leave a Reply